An attempted coup d’etat in Bolivia, led by the former military chief, appears to have been thwarted after an extended period of disarray filled with apprehension and absurdity. General Juan José Zúñiga, who had mobilised soldiers and armored vehicles towards the presidential palace in La Paz, concluded Wednesday being showcased to the media post his capture by police.
Zúñiga’s initial demand was for President Luis Arce to alter his cabinet and liberate imprisoned opposition leaders. Instead, Arce broadcasted live on television from the palace entrance, instructing Zúñiga to withdraw to the barracks.
It remains unclear whether Zúñiga anticipated more military factions to rally behind him, however, it became evident that there was no additional backing on the way, and Arce wouldn’t buckle to his impositions.
As Zúñiga awaited detainment, he issued a statement claiming his attempted coup was merely a publicity stunt orchestrated by Arce, a notion categorically rejected by the palace as “utterly untrue”.
This misadventure had the flavour of a Latin American debacle, mainly attributed to its failure. The whole operation seemed haphazard and reckless, coming to a closure as quickly as it had commenced. Nevertheless, officials are presently scrutinising the extent of Zúñiga’s conspiracy within the military and any possible political support base.
Against a worsening political and economic situation, Zúñiga’s palace onslaught has thrown the impoverished Andean country on the threshold of a crisis.
The precursor of this week’s episodes points towards the intense contention within Arce’s ruling Movement Towards Socialism party (Mas). With a two-decade stronghold over Bolivian politics, the Mas is undergoing a rift between Arce’s followers and those of ex-president, party founder, and Arce’s once advisor, Evo Morales.
Both individuals are vying for the presidential candidacy in next year’s elections, causing a split within the party. Morales is stubbornly holding onto his candidacy, disregarding last year’s constitutional court verdict deeming him ineligible, branding it a ploy by Arce.
The possibility of Morales resuming his presidential duties is met with fierce resistance across Bolivia, especially within the Movement for Socialism (MAS) political party due to fears over his progressively autocratic leadership approach. As president from 2006 to 2019, Morales earned a reputation for regularly amending the constitution to prolong his presidential tenure, raising eyebrows in a nation where the presidential term was typically finite. His reign ended in violent upheaval following allegations of election fraud during the 2019 presidential race in which he participated, despite Bolivians rejecting his bid for a fourth term in a public vote.
The origins of this week’s turmoil appear to lie within an internal MAS conflict. On Monday, then military head Zúñiga stated in a TV interview that he’d detain Morales should he persist with his campaign for next year’s election—a claim Morales countered with a warning of an imminent coup. By Tuesday, Arce determined he couldn’t accept such a blatant interference in civilian matters by the military chief, despite this being a staunch ally he had appointed himself earlier this year. Unemployed by Tuesday night, Zúñiga made his ill-advised bet by Wednesday noon.
However, the internal infighting within MAS is far from over. The power struggle is causing further destabilization in Bolivian politics as arcistas and evistas battle amidst the nation’s institutions. With the economy’s future appearing increasingly bleak, and a dwindling supply of dollars leading to burgeoning balance of payment issues and problems sourcing critical imports like fuel, Bolivia continues marching deeper into chaos.
At the root of it is MAS’s mismanagement of Bolivia’s gas industry, its main foreign income source. The sector’s 2006 nationalization was initially a windfall for public funds but extensive underinvestment and a shift in investment focus by Brazil and Argentina, Bolivia’s main buyers, towards domestic sources have led to a serious downturn.
MAS has long earmarked Bolivia’s vast lithium reserves – a crucial element for energy transition – as a potential economic lifeline. However, delays in mining these reserves mean that gas exports will most likely cease before lithium exports can step in to fill the economic void.
Despite averting Wednesday’s coup, both political and economic instability in Bolivia are set to intensify in the coming months.