Rapid confirmation of Simon Harris as the new leader of Fine Gael has sparked an inevitable period of fervent guesswork concerning his plans, as he gears up for his formal election to Taoiseach on Tuesday. The resignation timeline of his predecessor, Leo Varadkar, was calculated to allow Harris to make the best possible impression at this weekend’s party ard fheis.
Therefore, Harris’s inaugural speech as leader, set for Saturday evening in Galway, could be the most significant of his political career so far. Despite political parties often inflating the importance of these live TV broadcasts, this speech may have more impact than most. Harris is essentially performing an introduction for the nation he is set to lead the following week, while also trying to galvanise his party for future electoral battles. His ability to balance these two tasks will be insightful.
Will Harris’s address mirror the internal debate within Fine Gael on whether the party’s identity should shift under his leadership? Generally, this discussion has been presented as a case for reversion to the party’s core principles, prioritising law and order, backing for small businesses, and addressing rural Ireland’s needs.
The government’s stability has been noteworthy, with the identical fifteen-member Cabinet in place since August 2020, barring some initial fluctuation. This pattern will change on Tuesday when Harris occupies the two empty seats left by Varadkar and Simon Coveney. This move, combined with potential lower-tier ministerial shuffling, will provide the foremost evidence of any shift in focus from Varadkar to Harris.
However, his scope for change is restricted. It would be a significant deviation if either Paschal Donohoe or Heather Humphreys were removed from their current roles within Public Expenditure and Social Protection. Thus, the Cabinet member who might experience a position change is Justice Minister Helen McEntee. Factors such as geographical considerations and allegiance to the new leader, as well as competency, will affect the promotions due on Tuesday.
Likewise, Harris is somewhat limited in the alterations he may want to make in the final year of his governmental term. His two alliance colleagues would probably show little excitement for any last-minute amendments to their legal agenda, especially if those changes indicate a redirection of Fine Gael towards the centre-right political ground.
In the end, the evaluation of his performance, while potentially unjust, will be heavily based on Fine Gael’s election results on a European and regional level this June, as well as the subsequent national election set to occur by the coming spring. It is a remarkably brief period for the nation’s youngest-ever Taoiseach to leave a significant imprint.