There’s not much positive to say about Joe Biden’s faltering showing in a recent debate, aside from the fact that it happened in June, still giving him a potential two months before the Democratic convention if he were urged to resign as the nominee.
Biden has always been protected by his staunch supporters, keen to quell even the faintest murmur of opposition to his candidacy. Yet, the lacklustre performance in the debate brought them face-to-face with reality. For a significant period, the topic of the president’s advancing age has marked private discussions in Washington, while public admissions have been virtually non-existent. This veneer of denial, however, has now shattered, opening discussions about persuading Biden to step back.
This decision lies solely in Biden’s hands. After having secured the Democratic nomination, he is well within his right to disregard calls for his resignation. Prospective replacement nominees, such as Gavin Newsom, the governor of California, and Gretchen Whitmer, the governor of Michigan, would probably remain silent. The fear of being branded a betrayer and jeopardising their potential presidential run would be too substantial.
Contrary to popular belief, there isn’t a group of senior party members who can instigate Biden to surrender his position. He is the party’s figurehead. An approach from younger members, Hillary Clinton (76), or a much younger Barack Obama (62), could potentially backfire.
But according to people close to Biden, only his family, starting with his wife, Jill Biden, could sway his decision. Biden is known for his obstinacy, a trait shared by most who become president. Up until the debate, he was convinced that he was the only Democrat capable of outdoing Donald Trump. However, his future now seems to be veering towards a potential defeat in November.
As Biden’s unclear and often barely audible responses continued during the debate, betting markets began to react. By the end, PredictIt, a political betting market, projected Trump’s chances of victory at 61%, up from 53% prior to the debate, numerically capturing the dominant sentiment of the time.
Democrats currently face a double-edged sword. First, the likelihood is that Biden will remain resolute and not step down, maintaining his presidential candidacy despite recent challenges. His aides have previously noted his struggle with an intense cold, which could explain his strained speech during the debate. However, any references to Trump’s suggestion that Biden might have been using performance enhancers, like a shot of adrenaline or even cocaine, seems to have faded out of public memory.
If Biden attributes his recent performance to an off day, he might continue his campaign, consuming valuable time the Democratic party could have used to nominate a replacement. If Biden further procrastinates his resignation by a few weeks then steps down, it would be the worst possible scenario. An immediate announcement of his intention is therefore deemed necessary.
The second peril lies in the possibility of Biden’s timely resignation leading to internal dissent and strife within the Democratic Party. Biden has previously resisted stepping down due to the unpopularity of Kamala Harris, the vice-president. However, her unique status as the first non-white female vice-president makes it difficult for Biden to publicly favour another candidate. If Biden bypasses Harris as his successor, it may lead to a stark ideological divide within the party.
The opposing candidate, especially if a white male, would likely face harsh criticism as an opponent of progress, which could lead to a contentious Democratic nomination and a potentially divisive convention in Chicago. The spectre of the 1968 Democratic convention in the same city lingers ominously, with its infamous internal struggles.
These hazards have been highlighted earlier. On the other hand, the potential benefits are now more evident than ever. Numerous democracies have the ability to conduct a general election and change their government within the time remaining until the Chicago convention. Indeed, all indicators suggest Britain is on course to do just that as it moves towards a sudden election announced in late May. An open convention, albeit without recent precedent in the US, should not act as a deterrent. The 2024 US presidential race is forging unique paths, including the oldest candidates ever and Trump’s denial of the results from the previous election.
Bill Clinton once expressed the view that Americans tend to favour strength even when misguided, over weak but justified actions. This sentiment was clearly reflected on the debate stage on Thursday. Every Democrat, Biden included, has tirelessly stressed the importance of democracy in the upcoming November elections. They propose that the implications for America are survival-oriented. The real question is whether they are prepared to ruthlessly enforce what they preach.
There is an abundance of capable individuals within the Democratic party and a robust competition wouldn’t necessarily harm the party. In fact, it could highlight the vibrant democratic process they stand for, which they feel is under threat. Both Biden and the first lady need to ponder who would be a greater source of concern to Trump: would it be Biden himself, or a youthful contender who is able to construct the counterarguments he missed out on during Thursday’s debate? For an increasing number of Democrats, the answer is self-evident. – Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2024.