Joe Biden has withdrawn from the race for US president, stating he believes it is beneficial for his party and the country. So what comes next? One key donor from the Democratic Party posits that replacing Biden in the race could be a critical factor in preventing Donald Trump’s return to the oval office, by capturing national interest and allowing Democrats the opportunity to reset the competition dynamics.
But what is the procedure?
Does Biden have the power to choose Kamala Harris as the new contender? Not exactly. He is able to endorse his vice-president, potentially elevating her profile and utilising the funds amassed for their combined campaign. However, the ultimate decision rests with the delegates at the Democratic National Convention (DNC) taking place in mid-August. No regulation dictates that they must back a particular candidate, simply that their choice should “faithfully represent the views of those who elected them”.
Biden’s nearly 4,000 delegate supporters, all committed to him during the party’s primary elections, can be “freed” by him. He can put his weight behind Harris and attempt to expedite the process of nomination. Post the initial voting round at the convention, delegates are “free” to cast their vote for any candidate.
Chris Dempsey, the founder of Delegates are Democracy, an organisation aiding delegates, suggests: “From a rules standpoint, it’s entirely open, and delegates are free to vote for their selected candidate. However, politically speaking, if he were to put his support behind his VP, delegates may follow suit, but there is no obligation to do so.”
Joe Biden exits the race: Full Statement
Who could take Biden’s place following his exit from the presidential race?
While Biden recovers from Covid-19, Harris steps into prominent campaign role
Can the party hold a fresh race?
This could signify a notable, albeit unpredictable turn of events in a campaign which, until recently, seemed monotonous and foreseeable. Democratic representative Jim Clyburn has hinted at backing “mini primaries”, and James Carville, a seasoned political advisor, has recently argued in the New York Times for a series of town halls moderated by former Democratic presidents.
Envisioning it, he penned: “Consider it akin to the Super Bowl with Taylor Swift in the audience. People of all ages would tune in to witness history in the making.”
The Leadership Now Project, a group of business executives and academics, states that the Democratic National Committee’s rules committee or its overall membership would need to cast their votes to establish protocols and amendments on schedules and debates. Nevertheless, no official selection would take place before the convention. A campaign to secure a nomination requires the validation of 300 delegate signatures, with a cap of 50 from any single state. Every candidate also needs to create a presidential campaign committee and register with the Federal Election Commission to gather funds. A super PAC could aid in money collection for a campaign, but some costs, such as personnel and debate travel expenses, have to be directly managed by the candidate’s committee.
An ‘Open Convention’ in August?
An ‘open convention’ occurs when no nominee is pre-decided due to the absence of a clear majority delegate for any candidate. Such a scenario would draw huge interest but could shed light on substantial rifts among different figures and ideological groups within the party. This includes disputes about the conflict in Gaza. This contrasts with the highly organised and unified Republic convention in Milwaukee, which nominated Trump and his chosen Deputy, JD Vance.
Historically, open conventions have been synonymous with turmoil, particularly the 1968 DNC, held in Chicago. Lyndon Johnson, the President at the time, withdrew his candidacy while Robert F Kennedy, his presumed successor, was assassinated. Hubert Humphrey got the party’s support amidst Vietnam War protests, but then lost the election to Republican Richard Nixon.
Potential Biden Replacement?
The singing candidate to succeed Biden is Harris, who is part of his campaign, although her popularity is only marginally higher than the President’s according to polls. A top Democrat fundraiser stated that it would be highly probable for Harris to replace Biden if he were to step down. The reasons being her adequate preparation and the delicacy of sidelining a candidate who is a black woman. Other potential candidates in the mix include Gavin Newsom, the governor of California, and Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, both of whom have gained a national profile recently.
Andy Beshear of Kentucky and Roy Cooper of North Carolina, both known figures from traditionally Republican states, are less probable choices in the forthcoming elections, as are Pete Buttigieg, Secretary of Transport; Gina Raimondo, Secretary of Commerce; and Sherrod Brown, Senator from Ohio. Likewise, Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania and JB Pritzker of Illinois have been cited as potential candidates. Any successor candidate would need to consider their vice-presidential choices with the aim of broadening their voter appeal.
With regards to Biden’s generated campaign funds, he and Harris jointly oversee a campaign committee that amassed $270m (£209m) in this year’s second quarter. If Harris stays in the capacity of the presidential or vice-presidential candidate, she holds on to her rights to the unspent funds.
Due to federal contribution limits, each candidate is restricted to transfers of $2,000 per election. Therefore, if Biden were to step down, his campaign would need to propose a refund to the donors, who could then redistribute it to the campaign of the new candidate. This is per the terms laid out by the Leadership Now Project.
Moreover, an infinite sum can be moved by the Biden campaign to the DNC, which then has the capacity to invest up to $32mn parallel to the nominee’s campaign, in line with FEC regulations. Campaign specialists indicate that any residual funds cannot be directly transferred to a candidate, but can be utilised in a coordinated manner, similar to how super PAC fundraising groups function.
As they worry about the future of Biden’s campaign, some leading donors have reduced their contributions, somewhat unsettling Democrats. They are now of the opinion that a replacement candidate could galvanise donors, and might enhance funding in a bid to outperform Trump. This is reported by the Financial Times.