Could the US president, Joe Biden, take a page from Donald Trump’s approach, the previous Republican contender, and begin to promote the American S&P 500’s strong performance? A poll conducted by Harris-Guardian indicates that nearly half of the American population believe that the stock market fell in 2024. Contrariwise, the S&P 500 is indeed experiencing its best ever performance, with an extraordinary 12 per cent rise this year (representing its most powerful beginning to an election year) and a comprehensive 28 per cent increase within the past year.
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Notwithstanding, the American public are quite mistaken on other fronts too. Nearly half are under the misapprehension that unemployment rates are the worst they’ve been in 50 years, when in actuality, they’re less than 4 per cent and are close to a 50-year record low. Furthermore, over half of Americans inaccurately believe that the US is undergoing a recession.
Supporters of the Republican party in particular (67 per cent of respondents) hold these inaccurate beliefs about the country’s economic situation, along with a high proportion of Democratic voters (49 per cent).
Conventionally, successful stock market conditions denote the victory of the ruling party in an election. However, 2024 may see a shift in this trend, given the mass misunderstanding amongst investors regarding the economic growth and bullish stock market position.
Constantly highlighting the stock market progress during his term was a defining feature of Trump’s presidency, despite the fact that the president’s influence on stock performance is quite limited, and such a strategy may backfire given the blame they might face should stocks fall. Biden, however, might find himself obliged to adopt a similar approach of open stock market promotion based upon these troubling poll results.