As Michel Barnier took on the role of France’s newest Prime Minister, there were immediate doubts about his longevity in the post, with many doubting he would make it to Christmas. President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to appoint the former EU Brexit negotiator – a move warmly welcomed in both Dublin and Brussels – was met with a less enthusiastic response closer to home, particularly within France’s National Assembly. Despite being an established and respected right-wing figurehead, Barnier’s party, Les Républicains, command a mere one-sixth of the assembly seats.
Following recent victories, the largest group in the assembly, the New Popular Front, accused Macron of disrupting democracy by disregarding their candidate for Prime Minister, declaring it would neither join the new government nor vote in its favour. Surprisingly, the fate of Barnier’s government now hinges on the unclear intentions of Marine Le Pen’s far-right party, Rassemblement National – a party Macron had hoped to neutralise by calling an early election.
At 73, Barnier is the oldest Prime Minister in modern French history and now faces a political challenge that makes Brexit negotiations seem less formidable. His proven track record, however, as a considerate and practical negotiator renowned for ceaseless patient dialogue has kept EU institutions and member states unified and committed. Barnier’s approach of “humility”, “determination”, and “respect for all political groups” will, however, prove to be tested from both left and right.
His priority tasks are to draft a budget to stabilize public finances and to tackle Macron’s highly contested plan to increase the retirement age. Amidst these challenging tasks, surviving in office until Christmas indeed seems an ambitious goal.