The distinguished Potsdam Institute in Germany published research over the summer that has triggered grave apprehensions for Ireland. It validates the prediction that Ireland is on a trajectory to exceed a critical climatic tipping point in the oceanic ecosystem sooner than most predictions. The evidence indicates that the Atlantic Meridional Circulation System (Amoc) may cease to function, a scenario which could precipitate a precipitous temperature decline in Ireland whilst global temperatures are still on the rise.
Many key decision-makers are kept on their toes due to the imminent danger, the potential for the collapse of forest ecosystems, melting ice sheets, or the drastic changes to ocean currents. This could unleash out-of-control climatic changes and the degradation of the relatively stable living conditions we have enjoyed for the last 10,000 years.
Our positioning in the Atlantic makes changes in the ocean our most significant apprehension. Should the Amoc cease functioning, the effect on northwestern Europe could be disastrous, with Ireland suffering the greatest impact. Our placement, on par with chilly Newfoundland, allows us to benefit from the temperate conditions provided by the Gulf Stream. Warm Caribbean waters migrate northwards, merging with colder, less saline waters between Iceland and Norway and initiating a ‘downwelling’ process, retreating southwards in a deeper, colder state. This forms part of a broader ‘ocean conveyor belt’ affecting conditions in areas like the Amazon region.
It has been established that the less saline and cooler meltwaters from the Greenland ice sheet could interfere with this circulation system. Until now, a halt in the Amoc within this century seemed unlikely, but newer research events suggests it might happen significantly sooner, potentially even mid-century. We are aware that the Amoc has ceased in the past and there are indications that it is currently showing signs of weakening. Confirmation that this tipping point has been passed might only arrive when it’s already underway and potentially irreversible. Hence, this issue is now getting amplified scientific observation.
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If speculations about the Atlantic ocean’s circulation prove accurate, Ireland may find itself facing a worst-case scenario.
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For three consecutive years, major new research has echoed similar warnings about the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Although there is no definitive scientific agreement on these findings yet, the increasing signs indicate our climate is altering at a swifter pace than predicted, with the North Atlantic experiencing these changes acutely. A sharp increment in our ocean water temperatures last year seems to be a contributing factor to the unusually heated, rainy, and blustery climate we’ve experienced over the past twelve months.
Understanding the AMOC is a challenge due to the numerous intricate marine and atmospheric forces impacting it. Therefore, an enhanced monitoring regimen is vital for comprehensive comprehension of the changes taking place. However, what appears to be an inevitability is the ceasing of this system unless we drastically reduce our greenhouse gas emissions.
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) intends to bring together various European experts to enlighten the forthcoming assessment report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – an integral source for policy makers. Such evaluations generally rely on probability assessments. According to the recent study, the AMOC shutdown might be one of the earliest thresholds we cross, and its likelihood increases for every degree by which the global average temperature increases. As per the Paris Agreement, we pledged to limit that rise to under 1.5 degrees. Nevertheless, the most recent assessment shows us veering towards a 2.7 degree increase, bringing us into perilous territory, specifically in the North Atlantic.
Additionally, the EPA has undertaken a research initiative named ‘Climate Change in the Irish Mind’. This involved exhaustive interviews with thousands of residents in Ireland and indicates a vast majority eager to contribute to overcoming this significant challenge. We aspire to safeguard the natural world and the environment for forthcoming generations and are witnessing a transformation in our weather patterns. As we begin to reduce our emissions, we are distancing ourselves from the image of being climate action laggards. Our influential and robust voice in international climate negotiations is crucial in halting a potential AMOC collapse.
It might be necessary for us to begin planning for an alternate future. The majority of us possibly believed we would be exempt from some of the trials more temperate regions might struggle with. If recent research proves accurate, we could be facing the grimmest of scenarios. Our favourable agriculture and living conditions could deteriorate. Instead of considering how we accommodate climate refugees from the south, we may find ourselves contemplating relocation to the south to escape the severe cold.
Eamon Ryan holds the position of Minister for Environment, Climate, Communications and Transport.