A significant downturn in voter backing for the ruling African National Congress (ANC) has emerged less than a week before South Africa’s general election, as suggested by daily election polls. As per a study conducted by the Social Research Foundation think tank, there was a drop in support for President Cyril Ramaphosa and his party from nearly 46% to 40.8%, centred on a 60% voter turnout, between May 15th and 22nd.
The ANC’s loss of voter confidence was primarily to the advantage of the Democratic Alliance (DA), the leading opposition party, and ex-president Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party. Over the same stretch of time, the DA’s percentage climbed from 24.7% to 27.2% while the MK party, which is predominant in Zuma’s native province of KwaZulu-Natal, increased from 7.7% to 13.3%.
The fall in ANC support began soon after the controversial National Health Insurance Bill was legally endorsed by Ramaphosa on May 15th, a move seen as unrealistic and a publicity tactic by its detractors. Another contributing factor was a constitutional court judgement that prevented Zuma, who departed from the ANC following a dispute with its leaders, from contesting for parliament due to a contempt of court sentence he received in 2021.
Zuma, who served as the nation’s president until 2018, resigned from his position under pressure from the ANC following allegations of encouraging extensive public-sector corruption during his time in office. Currently 82, Zuma is expected to face trial in April of the following year for corruption charges linked to a government arms deal from his time as deputy president in 1999.
Despite the popularity of Ramaphosa as the ANC leader, observers had predicted that the ANC might not garner the ’50 per cent plus one vote’ required to secure an undisputed election victory after months of speculation. A possibility of the ANC’s support dipping below 40% was indicated by early 2024 voter surveys, highlighting dissatisfactions with the ANC’s governance performance over the past 15 years. This potentially interrupted the party’s streak of six consecutive national election triumphs since 1994, necessitating a coalition to retain control of the government.
In 2019, South Africans harboured high hopes that the newly elected president, Ramaphosa, would address the endemic corruption within the ANC and public sector, which had thrived under Zuma’s tenure, and breathe life into the struggling economy and job market. However, South Africa remains one of the most dangerous and least equal nations worldwide, with a staggering 32.9% unemployment rate primarily hitting their black population, incidentally the ANC’s key support group.
Despite ample incriminating evidence from numerous inquiries linking prominent members to corruption, few ANC leaders have been brought to trial since Ramaphosa assumed power. From early April, as the ANC initiated its campaign across nine provinces, polls indicated an improvement in voter confidence compared to the start of the year. High-profile ANC individuals, including past presidents Thabo Mbeki, Kgalema Motlanthe, and anti-apartheid veterans, were enlisted to bolster the party’s “struggle” image and persuade voters to maintain their loyalty despite economic and societal difficulties.
The approval of the National Health Insurance Bill and a recent ANC approval for implementing a standard income grant seemed to stabilize its voter base. Some polls even pointed towards the ANC receiving almost half of the vote, a significant recovery since the start of year. However, if the regular polls by the Social Research Foundation are reliable, this upward trend might now be under question.
Should the ANC’s poll results fall below 40%, partnering with at least one of the larger opposition parties would be necessary to establish a minority government which could bring significant changes to South Africa. The Economic Freedom Fighters and the MK party, the two of the three largest, are known for their extreme populist programs. Conversely, with a score of 45% or more, the ANC would only require the support of smaller opposition parties to form a government. Senior lecturer at the University of the Witwatersrand’s school of governance, Hlengiwe Ndlovu, suggests that the ANC has traditionally “capitalised on voter loyalty over the years,” so a better than anticipated polling outcome this week wouldn’t be surprising.
“I believe the ANC might prove unpredictable. With a multitude of contrasting parties at present, they fail to offer convincing measures to address the issues at hand in the nation. Frequently, it’s a matter of opting for the familiar menace over the unfamiliar one,” she remarked. Unquestionably, given the current stage of the general election period, the sole sure thing for South Africans is the residing uncertainty regarding the ANC’s performance.