Following this week’s general election, political groups in South Africa are set to engage in coalition discussions. In a striking turn of events, the recent election has given the African National Congress (ANC) its poorest outcome in three decades. A count of 75.03% of the 23,293 electoral districts suggests that the ANC is on track to secure only 41.52% of the vote, potentially losing its parliamentary majority for the first time since 1994.
While the ANC continues to maintain popularity, the election results represent a significant setback for President Cyril Ramaphosa (71) and his cohort within the erstwhile freedom movement. Now, the ANC must establish a partnership with a minimum of one other party to govern over the next five years.
According to the election model developed by the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, the current standings of the parties are not expected to shift significantly when the final results are delivered this weekend.
This significant drop from the 57.5% vote share claimed by the ANC in the general election of 2019 hints that the party’s anti-apartheid heritage no longer secures most voters’ allegiance. Many South Africans have expressed dissatisfaction with Mr. Ramaphosa’s tenure as President, citing ongoing ANC corruption, rampant crime, steep unemployment rates, and mismanagement of resources as key issues.
Despite a slight vote share increase from 20.77% in 2019 to 22.26% this year, the Democratic Alliance remains the primary opposition party. However, the unexpectedly strong performance of the newly established uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party, at the expense of the ANC, has taken many by surprise.
Former president Jacob Zuma, 82, fronts this party, which split from the ANC after internal disputes. The MK party has proven particularly successful in the provinces of KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga, and has secured 12.81% of the national vote. This positions the party, advocating for an overhaul of South Africa’s constitution to allow for “unfettered parliamentary supremacy”, in third place – ahead of the radical left-wing Economic Freedom Fighters, who secured 9.4% of votes.
As it becomes apparent that the election results won’t bring about a drastic shift, the focus of South African society has shifted toward the potential alliances the ANC may form to establish a steady national administration. Deputy Secretary General of ANC, Nomvula Mokonyane, reassured that the party’s main priority in any potential coalition would be the wellbeing of the nation. She also reaffirmed that no party member would step down owing to the outcome of the elections.
Later on Thursday, Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla, daughter of Mr Zuma, dismissed the prospect of a partnership between MK party and the ANC. She iterated that her father showed willingness to collaborate exclusively with “forward-looking black parties”.
John Steenhuisen, leader of the Democratic Alliance, addressed the media in Johannesburg, expressing satisfaction with his party’s course. He optimistically speculated that, should voting trends continue in this vein, they might inch closer to a promising result. “I must say, a political party bagging 22-24 per cent votes holds significant sway in shaping the nation’s destiny in a period when a clear majority is absent,” he stated.
Although remaining open-minded about a coalition with the ANC, Steenhuisen made it clear that his priority would be to communicate with his colleagues in the Multi-Party Charter, a ten-party opposition coalition formed in July 2023 for the general election.
Meanwhile, political analyst Gareth Newham from the Institute for Security Studies proposed the Democratic Alliance as a viable ally for the ANC, due to its centrism and capability to pave a stable governance route for South Africa. He opined that associating with the radical MK party or EFF would not be desirable for Ramaphosa. “One thing I am certain of – no one in the ANC is interested in rewarding Zuma’s role in the party’s downfall,” he noted.
(c) Copyrigt Thomson Reuters 2024.