For three consecutive years, Leinster has faced Toulouse for the Champions Cup knockout tie. The Irish unit triumphed in the semi-finals in both 2022 and 2023, defeating the French rivals by a total of 42 points, with scores of 40-17 in 2022 and 41-22 the following year. These scores, particularly considering the advanced stage of the competition, signified heavy losses for Toulouse. This year, with majority of the lineups unchanged, the question is whether Leinster can maintain their dominance and successfully employ the same strategy.
The element of discipline has been the deciding factor in their recent meetings, or rather Toulouse’s lack thereof. It can often be argued that a single penalty doesn’t necessarily tip the balance of a match, but this claim definitely cannot be applied to the recent encounters between these sides. Particularly in the last match, Toulouse’s lack of discipline cost them dearly, granting Leinster an effortless win.
In 2023, Toulouse players Thomas Ramos and Rodrigue Neti were shown the yellow card for deliberate interference during a seemingly harmless Leinster offence, and a needless headbutt respectively. During these disciplinary penalties, Leinster racked up 28 out of their 41 points. Similarly, Emmanuel Meafou of Toulouse was penalised in 2022.
The previous year, Toulouse incurred five penalties in the first 25 minutes, while Leinster escaped unpenalized. This trend continued the following year, with three penalties given against Toulouse in the initial 15 minutes.
Recurring foul play only exacerbated the issue. In a brief span last year, Ramos was sin binned, enabling Leinster to score from the resulting penalty. Toulouse added to their troubles with a subsequent penalty for an unnecessary neck roll, providing Leinster another scoring opportunity. Upon Ramos’ return, an inaccurate pass that hit Jack Willis in the face, leading to a clumsy score for Dan Sheehan, multiplied the pressure.
Whether it’s a string of mistakes or disciplinary problems, Toulouse was unable to rectify their faults, leading to an immediate collapse in both matches.
Toulouse’s offence struggled to make a significant impression, particularly in their 2023 match where despite advancing more post-contact metres than Leinster (419 against 263), they only managed to breach the defensive line on four occasions, compared to Leinster’s more successful six. The figures didn’t improve much in 2022, with Toulouse only achieving 199 post-contact metres and a single line break.
What was Leinster’s strategy against them? They relied heavily on their forwards, particularly their heavy carriers, to build momentum by continuously charging at the corner. However, Leinster managed to control this by selectively participating at the breakdown, keeping their numbers in line and implementing a controlled and aggressive approach.
While Toulouse did manage to score its first try in 2023 due to Leinster’s defensive line being too laid back, the overall strategy was successful. Leinster’s forwards lost some ground in contact but prevented significant line breaks. They tackled larger forwards like Meafou, with his impressive 145kg weight, by either teaming up to limit distance made or efficiently breaking him down with chop tackles.
Even though Meafou’s large size helped him cover a fair distance in metres during 2023, he failed to make a line break in both semi-finals, thus restricting his overall effectiveness.
In addition, Leinster also managed to stifle Toulouse’s counter-attack – a potent threat from Toulouse that effectively utilises players like Thomas Ramos, Romain Ntamack, Antoine Dupont, and Blair Kinghorn to exploit turnovers or poor kick returns. Despite a success rate of 41.4 per cent, making them the eight highest team for converting breaks into tries globally, this threat was largely absent against Leinster.
Aside from Dupont scoring a try from a blocked kick in 2022, Toulouse struggled in this area. While managing to force 10 turnovers in the two games, most resulted from penalties, allowing Leinster’s defence to reset. Toulouse didn’t secure quick turnover ball that could have been hurled wide and kept in play.
Leinster’s game strategy has frequently showcased commendable kicking skills, greatly helping with limiting transition opportunities. Their united formation in defence meant no room for Ntamack and his team to counterattack. accuracy in their kicks allowed them to find open spaces beyond the backfield cover and kept the opposition’s runners in a tricky position, having to retrieve possession instead of advancing with force. It was observed that Toulouse occasionally occupied the higher part of the backfield, which left room uncovered.
Leinster’s precise kicks, particularly when Charlie Ngatai managed to locate a small gap for a 50:22 in the previous year, deserve recognition. In comparison to Toulouse, Leinster kicked more frequently, with a tally of 64 compared to 47 kicks.
Leinster’s continuation of this successful strategy is open to inquiry. Under the stewardship of Sean O’Brien followed by Jacques Nienaber, the team has significantly transformed their defensive tactics. Instead of attempting to restrain Toulouse’s forward forces by avoiding breakdowns and preserving a steady line speed, Leinster opt to inundate the ruck and launch a blitz. This approach demonstrated its efficiency against La Rochelle’s robust forward forces.
A similar game plan will be required to avert Toulouse’s transition offence; securing the ball, efficient rucking to minimise turnovers and unerring kicking strategy.
However, the significant factor of historical penalties and faults by the French side may not be reliable. The question remains, will they repeat past mistakes by committing penalties, cards, and easy scores early on? If not, will Leinster’s other strategies be sufficient to maintain their advantage? This query was not posed in the past two matches. A more disciplined Toulouse squad should raise it on Saturday.