The National Alliance, a coalition of political groups and independents with strong stances on immigration, was created to increase the potential of its members being elected in the upcoming general election by avoiding vote splitting among candidates with similar agendas. However, it remains to be seen if this alliance will enhance the likelihood of any of the 19 candidates becoming Teachtaí Dála (TD).
The support enjoyed by the parties in the alliance, which includes Ireland First, the National Party, and The Irish People, shouldn’t be exaggerated. Alongside the Irish Freedom Party (IFP), which isn’t part of the alliance, they managed to secure less than 2 per cent of the national vote in June’s local election and about 5 per cent in the European election.
It’s possible that synchronisation in specific important constituencies could benefit some general election candidates, yet their election odds are quite uncertain.
The most recognisable figure in the National Alliance, Derek Blighe, who doesn’t agree with the far-right label, received an impressive count of just over 25,000 priority votes in the Ireland South European electoral district. He accumulated nearly 900 local election votes, falling slightly short of earning a place on the Cork County Council. Blighe is running in Cork North Central in the general election. Despite having the best chance among Alliance members, he requires multiple times his local election vote count to secure a place as a TD.
Patrick Quinlan of the National Party, a Fingal County Council representative, is contesting in Dublin West. Quinlan attracted 456 votes in the Blanchardstown-Mulhuddart area in June, but would need a significant increase to secure a Dáil seat.
The National Alliance also faces the challenge of having to deal with other candidates, who share their political ideologies, but will be in contention for votes.
Hermann Kelly, who leads the IFP, a party known for its slogan “Ireland is full”, intends to run for the Dáil in Louth. In Louth, The National Alliance is fielding Derek McElearney of The Irish People as its contender. Kelly describes the approach of his party as “libertarian” and “nationalist”, not far right. He mentions that the IFP has defined objectives addressing a range of areas including but not limited to immigration, energy, crime and taxation. While the National Alliance has invited the IFP to join forces, the latter has chosen not to, partially because the former is not an officially registered political body, and won’t appear on the election ballot.
Meanwhile, prominent politicians known for their anti-immigration stance who achieved council seats last June, such as Gavin Pepper, are absent from the National Alliance’s candidate roster. Confirming his intention to run solo in Dublin Northwest, Pepper says he opposes illegal immigration, but does not identify with the far right.
Another Dublin City Councillor, Malachy Steenson, discloses that he will be running in Dublin Central. He doesn’t identify as far-right and dismisses any association with anyone who does, and, in his view, this also extends to the National Alliance. Whether he was approached by the National Alliance is of no consequence, and wishes all nationalists good luck in the upcoming election.
More individuals of similar ideology are anticipated to run in other areas, which means the alliance will face a challenge in its efforts to monopolise the support from the section of the electorate who regard immigration as a principal concern.