The esteemed intelligence agencies of Israel experienced a humiliating setback after an attack by Hamas on October 7th. Nevertheless, retribution was sought and successfully delivered this week. Two high-profile targets on Israel’s list found themselves ambushed and killed in the very places they assumed to be safe – the strongholds of Tehran and Beirut.
While Israel publicly accepted responsibility for the assassination of Hizbullah’s leading commander, Fuad Shukr, on Tuesday night, they remained notably silent on the issue of Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’s political head, who was murdered in Tehran mere hours later.
Despite this, the double assassinations are already being perceived by Israeli security officials as a form of redemption, and a potent warning to the region that additional reprisals may be imminent. For Israel’s adversaries, fear and suspicion are mounting in line with their determination to retaliate following such public security breaches.
As commented by Yaakov Amidror, a previous national security advisor to Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, “Israel is gradually regaining the prominence it lost in the aftermath of the October 7th attack.” He added that Israel had traditionally prioritised intelligence resources towards Lebanon and Iran, while largely ignoring the Gaza Strip. Ironically, the armed forces of Israel had been better prepared for a northern conflict with Hizbullah than a southern one with Hamas because of this.
The results of these preparations are clearly seen. Assassinations have constituted a significant part of Israeli tactics for years. Iranian nuclear scientists have been assassinated on the Tehran streets, Hamas militants have suffered fatal poisonings in hotels and gruesome deaths from exploding mobile phones and the looming threat of drone or air attacks is constant.
This was the probable approach used against Shukr. A handful of missiles besieged a residential complex in the congested Dahiyeh area of southern Beirut, a Hizbullah stronghold. The attack led to the demise of a minimum of three women and two children and left 72 others injured.
The news that Shukr, a significant figure in Hizbullah’s operations, was within striking distance came as an unexpected development, according to various individuals with knowledge of Hizbullah’s activities. The group had already succumbed to a deep-seated fear of Israel’s intelligence prowess prior to the event of Tuesday’s offensive.
During previous months, Hassan Nasrallah, the supreme leader of Hizbullah, had strongly urged his troops to abandon their modern phones. Many have reverted to older modes of communication such as pagers, traditional landlines, and physical messengers.
Several Hizbullah insiders and experts stated that the group suspected Israel of utilising a blend of voice-recognition surveillance software, artificial intelligence, and covert agents on-site to devastating results. Shukr, who is often referred to as the military chief of staff for the Iran-backed organisation, is now one of the over 350 personnel and battle commanders who have perished during ten months of increasing skirmishes with Israel. The militant group’s offensives on northern Israel, which commenced on the 8th of October in a show of support for Hamas, raised tensions last weekend following a presumed Hizbullah missile attack that took the lives of 12 young people in the Israeli occupied Golan Heights.
Emphasising the potency of Israel’s forces, Defence Minister Yoav Gallant announced on Tuesday night, following the strike on Beirut, “Our actions make it clear that any harm to our people comes with a cost and that no place is beyond our reach.”
The aftermath of the strike was a grim scene in Hizbullah’s stronghold. The targeted structure’s top floors crumbled, causing extensive damage to a neighbouring building and spreading rubble and shattered glass around the surrounding streets. Paramedics navigated through the thick dust to reach injured people. By Wednesday, rescue operations were ongoing.
Despite the onslaught, Nasrallah had traditionally downplayed such strikes, maintaining that they wouldn’t shake Hizbullah’s determination. After a high-ranking field leader was eliminated on July 10th, he asserted that losing key figures was an expected part of their struggle. Despite their falling heroes and Israel equipped with worldwide hi-tech and satellite resources, Nasrallah reasserted their group remained strong. However, Israel predicts that Nasrallah won’t respond as complacently to the death of his trusted aide, Shukr.
The fact that Haniyeh, a top Hamas official, was easily tracked is largely due to his public appearance at the inauguration of Iranian president, Masoud Pezeshkian, in Tehran. There are varying accounts as to how the assault on his Iranian-provided dwelling occurred, via drone, missile or a makeshift bomb.
Speaking on the event, Amos Yadlin, former head of Israel’s military intelligence, stated that such an outcome was foreseeable following the horrific incident on October 7th. Drawing a parallel with the targeted retribution following the tragic killing of 11 Israeli athletes at the 1972 Munich Olympics, Yadlin expressed that Israel is following a similar course for those involved in the recent October attack, no matter their rank.
Post Haniyeh’s assassination, only two top Hamas leaders remain. The spots of these fatal incidents span from Gaza to Beirut, and most recently, Tehran. It was previously confirmed by the Israeli military that Hamas’s top military commander, Mohammed Deif, was eliminated in an Israeli air raid in southern Gaza on July 13th.
Despite Israel’s prowess in assassinations over the years, their utility has usually been short-lived and occasionally strategically damaging. The current string of assassinations risks triggering a full-scale war in the Middle East, as Iran and Hizbullah have pledged to seek revenge for the killings.
“Israel’s capacity to execute someone no matter where or when, demonstrates the quality of their infiltration apparatus, their superior intelligence and their superior capabilities,” said Emile Hokayem, regional security director at the Institute for International Strategic Studies, adding that we need to evaluate the risks associated.
An anonymous diplomat pointed out that although Israel’s successful high-profile assassinations publicly display its penetrative power, especially on the enemy territory of Iran, they often underestimate the reaction of their adversaries. “They anticipate they can proceed without provoking a full-scale war,” stated the diplomat, “But it’s a precarious balance.”
– Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2024.