In the latest poll by Ipsos B&A for The Irish Times, it has been uncovered that Simon Harris is the preferred choice for Taoiseach by nearly 37% of the surveyed voters, once the next general election takes place.
Mary-Lou McDonald emerged as the second favourite with the support of 24% respondents, closely followed by Micheál Martin who secured the backing of 14%. The remaining voters were either in favour of a different candidate (15%) or did not disclose their choice (10%).
The nationally representative survey involved 1,200 participants aged 18 and above and took place between the 14th and 17th of September. The survey covered all constituencies, with Ipsos B&A interviewers carrying out face-to-face interviews. The forecasted accuracy is within roughly 2.8% in any direction.
That Harris has secured the top spot didn’t astonish many, taking into account the results of Thursday’s Ipsos B&A poll published by The Irish Times. The poll indicated his approval rating at 55%, witnessing a significant growth of 17 points since May.
Support for Harris as the following Taoiseach is widespread, but not unanimously. Younger electorate aged between 18 and 24 leaned more towards McDonald, the Sinn Féin leader, claiming 36% of their vote, as opposed to the 26% that preferred the Fine Gael leader. The voting preference was equally divided among the C2DE socioeconomic group—lower-income voters—with both Harris and McDonald claiming 31%.
The demographic most inclined to back Harris as the next Taoiseach are voters aged over 65 (48%) and Dublin residents (42%).
Unsurprisingly, the major chunk of Fine Gael (82%) and Sinn Féin (81%) supporters endorsed their respective leaders to ascend as Taoiseach.
Interestingly, less than half of the voters supporting Fianna Fáil, at 48 percent, wish to have Micheál Martin as their taoiseach, with Harris being the favourite among 38 percent. A mere 3 percent of those voters would prefer McDonald to take up the coveted position. Regardless of Harris’s leadership prospects, the formation of the subsequent government hinges on future decisions. According to our poll, participants were introduced to prospective coalitions. The Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael coalition was favoured by 22 percent, just slightly eclipsing the existing Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael-Green coalition at 21 percent. Furthermore, 16 percent of voters are hoping for a Sinn Féin-led government, with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael being out of the question. Of the voters, 7 percent are in favour of a Sinn Féin-Fianna Fáil collaboration, and 5 percent are rooting for a Sinn Féin-Fine Gael coalition, while 14 percent would rather another alternative. 15 percent of voters are yet to decide. Voters of both Fianna Fáil (48 percent) and Fine Gael (47 percent) are inclined towards a coalition consisting of just the two parties. This preference is stronger than maintaining the current partnership with the Green Party, which is endorsed by 29 percent of Fianna Fáil voters and 34 percent of Fine Gael voters. Predictably, most of the Green Party supporters (67 percent) would like the existing coalition to persist. Similarly, 66 percent of Sinn Féin voters would prefer their party lead the government, excluding Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. However, these coalitions can only be realised once votes are counted. Today’s poll hence offers a glimpse into factors that could shape voter choices in the imminent election.